Precognition versus prediction [D1LA] (Expecting)

[Dare Shah]

"The possibility of an early death that isn't simply a three hundred gold pieces donation to the temple of one's choice would do that. Most people are understandably afraid of the great beyond when it's expected to be an actual one way trip.

I would have expected the slight to be a bit less so in Sigil however, as dangers similar in intensity are aplenty, courtesy of coming from the whole multiverse. Doubly so as such potential dangers can only exist with the Lady's implicit approval, and under Her careful watch.

But yes, precognition."

She reached for her notebook and pencil.

"I'm all ears."

[L'Orr-hui]

''It seems you came under some assumption that arcane predictions were different from academic ones: Why is that?''

A cup floted towards his hand

''I would like to understand your reasonning before going on with any explanation.''

[Dare Shah]

"The difference, according to my own current knowledge, would be explainability.

I can explain the reasoning, including flaws, behind a mathematical prediction I offer. Eve picks exits C 80% of the time when she's stressed, raised to 95% if she's able to smell an unknown animal, thus my bet is on exit C.

Meanwhile arcanic predictions appear to be more about applying a method whose results have been proven, but with imperfect understanding of how and why it works."

[L'Orr-hui]

''Sorcerors, warlocks or hedge mages might not know the methods by which their spells yield results but us wizards do. Predictions, no matter their nature, have the same nature: probability of an event over a time period. While typical prediction must rely on one's own observations of patterns or observations of others, inherently limiting the scope of information available, magic allows an arcanist to tap into forces quite greater then themselves to see wider patterns or interpret them quicker.''

They paused for a sip

''But the base is the same''

[Dare Shah]

"Interesting. If I understand correctly, what you're saying is that you're using magic in two ways:

1. As a brain stimulant, not unlike the caffeine we're drinking right now, to speed up your thoughts enough to produce a result near instantly.
2. And as a source of extraneous data, beyond what your senses can normally perceive.

I'm curious about the second point in particular. Staying in the example of these mice, how does that work? Do you perform a lightning fast yet exhaustive scan of their brains, looking for the corner of their mind where are stored their maze-related memories?"

[L'Orr-hui]

''You are more or less correct in your conclusions. As for the mice I would not use magic to predict their course. It is feasible but likely a waste of effort.''

The flayer steepled his fingers

''Imagine needing to lift a stone. The task is fairly simple in complexity but it's difficulty will be depending on variables linked to it's weight and your ability to lift it. You would not normally introduce increased complexity to the task if you do not see the need to: why create a lever for a pebble? Even if lifting a large stone, creating a mechanism to help you might end up being more work then simply sweating. Yes?''

[Dare Shah]

"That's why I chose mice instead of a dice roll or a similar random event though: Interactions with even the simplest of living beings are infinitely more complex than with inert matter.

For example, lifting a stone the size and weight of a mouse with my bare hands would offer no difficulty. However, lifting an actual mouse in a bad mood the same way would just end up with my fingers bleeding from fresh bites. I would have at least to produce extra cheese or gloves to achieve the same result.

So my question stands: How do you predict a mouse's next moves? Circumstantial hints like wear of the ground suggesting a more often traveled path?"

Dare took a sip of tea, pinkie stuck.

"Maybe my question would be clearer without the overly narrow focus on mice.

Let's imagine you are a merchant at a market. Today, there are three available spots for you to set up your shop, and you of course want the ones where you're the most likely to do good business id est the location where potential customers for your specific goods are the most likely to stumble upon you.

How do you pick?"

[L'Orr-hui]

''It is not quite the topic that is the problem.'' they stated ''Let me put things in simpler terms: magic is vast and far reaching but requires extreme effort to use in a meaningful way. The examples you choose are both insignificant in scope and in matter to actually delve into the mysteries of the universe to solve. You are, in essence, asking me to design a complex machine to take a specific pebble off the ground. It can be done but is the effort worth it? To do what you ask I would need weeks or even months of work to create the basics of a formula to begin testing.''

They paused to sip

''Precognitive spells exist because it is useful and was worth the investment in time and ressources to tap the cosmos for them. Take battle precognition for example: increasing your reaction time by five to forty per cent was deemed and is still deemed well worth it as people tend to value their lives quite highly. That spell is of first circle because it's trigger is rather simple: intent. Violence always implies intent one way or another and this anchors the arcana that makes it works.''

[Dare Shah]

"Interesting. A lot of magic is used in very trivial ways, for what are basically party tricks. But I guess we touch the difference between using a tool and designing a tool, id est if a spell for tracking the movement of mice already existed it wouldn't be much effort to cast it, but making it from scratch is a tremendous investment.

What about when rulers order their mages to peek into the future apropos a particular difficult decision they have to make? Is it a custom spell each time or is there an already generic existing spell for that, but only designed for the purpose of looking decades ahead and at the scale of a country?"

[L'Orr-hui]

''You are correct in your assessment about the cost of investment. I will simply add that the nature of a spell also influences it's difficulty to create. Illusions are usually more simple then divinations because the first gives a substance-less shape from memory while the other seeks to gather new information. As a woman of science I do not need to explain to you how hard the second can be''

''As for the second question: it depends. Some have unique spells they have not shared, others might have higher circle divination spells. Divination and Commune comes to mind''